Exegesis Volume 4 Issue #23 From: "Francis G. Kostella" Subject: Testing astrology
Exegesis Digest Fri, 19 Mar 1999

Date: Wed, 17 Mar 1999 23:44:32 -0500
From: "Francis G. Kostella"
To: exegesis
Subject: Testing astrology
 

William D. Tallman wrote:

 >
 > The fact is that we simply do not know
 > anything about why astrology does
 > or does not work. My approach is
 > straightforward: I recognize that
 > astrology historically purports to be
 > able to make prediction possible,
 > and I am trying to find: 1) Why that
 > claim was made. 2) Why, if the claim
 > was valid, it is now commonly thought
 > that: a) prediction is not, and
 > presumably never has been, possible,
 > and b) this impossibility is
 > appropriate.
 >

I think the following URL is worth a look:

http://www.astrologer.com/aanet/ashes.html

It points to a paper titled "Twelfth Century Castle Besiegement in Sport" by Bernadette Brady and J.Lee Lehman. The authors test "Guido Bonatti's methods for determining the outcome of castle besiegement" by applying them to some modern sporting contests. This is worth a read.

The interesting thing here is that the method under scrutiny is essentially an algorithm, which means that everyone can produce the same results and set up demonstrations of the method. Brady and Lehman show something like 66% correct prediction, which is good enough to make an nice income gambling, if one is into that sort of thing.

I think we might take the group into a new realm by testing the claims in this paper and trying to apply the methods in some other areas.

But that requires we all read the paper. Anyone?

 >
 > Is anyone out there interested enough in
 > this discussion to make a contribution?
 > Anyone at all?
 >

Tough crowd, eh? I wish I'd had more time to actively participate this past year and want to thank you for carrying the banner (while I sailed a long choppy Saturn transit). I can't be sure of my schedule, but let us try to set up a real experiment following Brady and Lehman and see where that leads us, eh?

--fran

End of Exegesis Digest Volume 4 Issue 23

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